The Myth of the Self-Made Man

Lets go over the numbers given more data:

August 18th
Federal Forest Firefighters are currently fighting a wildfire that ignited near the La Plata Trail in Chaffee County. The “La Plata” fire is estimated to be 15 to 20 acres in size at this time, at high elevation, and growing. The fire has now crossed the county line into Lake County. The fire is all in federal land and no pre- evacuations or evacuations have been called for at this time. There is zero containment at this time.

19th
Location: The wildfire is on the Leadville Ranger District, 4 miles west of Twin Lakes within Chaffee and Lake counties. Start Date: August 17, 2025, at 5:46 p.m. Size: 45 acres Containment: 0% Cause: Human caused Vegetation: Timber-understory, grass and brush Resources: Approximately 32 personnel

20th
Size: 54 acres Containment: 0% Total Personnel: Approximately 90 personnel. More resources are on order and en route. Location: Pike-San Isabel National Forests, 4 miles west of Twin Lakes in Chaffee and Lake counties Reported: August 17, 2025, at 5:46 p.m.

21st
Size: 82 acres Containment: 0% Total Personnel: 129 Location: Pike-San Isabel National Forests, 4 miles west of Twin Lakes in Chaffee and Lake counties Reported: Aug. 17, 2025, at 5:46 p.m.

22nd
Size: 90 acres | Containment: 0% | Total Personnel: 128 Location: Pike-San Isabel National Forests, 4 miles west of Twin Lakes in Chaffee and Lake Counties Reported: Aug. 17, 2025, at 5:46 p.m.

Date Size (acres) Personnel Containment
Aug 18 15–20 → avg 17.5 ~32 0%
Aug 19 45 32 0%
Aug 20 54 90 0%
Aug 21 82 129 0%
Aug 22 90 128 0%




Metric Updated Value
Elapsed time 5 days
Average acres/day 14.5
Staff/acre/day 5.67
Staff/total acres 0.91
Non-overtime man-hours (8 hr/day) 3,288
Man-hours per acre 45.3
Acres per man-hour 0.022
ONE DAY (Aug 21→22)
Growth 8 acres
Staff/acre growth 16
Man-hours 1,024
Man-hours per acre 128
Growth rate 9.76%
Date Acres Personnel Man-hours (8 hr/day)
Aug 18 17.5 32 256
Aug 19 45 32 256
Aug 20 54 90 720
Aug 21 82 129 1,032
Aug 22 90 128 1,024

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Dates
dates = ["Aug 18", "Aug 19", "Aug 20", "Aug 21", "Aug 22"]

# Data
acres = [17.5, 45, 54, 82, 90]
personnel = [32, 32, 90, 129, 128]
man_hours = [p*8 for p in personnel]
acres_per_manhour = [acres[i]/man_hours[i] for i in range(len(acres))]

# Create figure and axes
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(10,6))

# Plot Acres
ax1.plot(dates, acres, color='red', marker='o', label='Acres')
ax1.set_xlabel('Date')
ax1.set_ylabel('Acres', color='red')
ax1.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='red')
ax1.set_title('La Plata Fire: Growth, Personnel, and Efficiency')

# Plot Personnel on same graph with secondary y-axis
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(dates, personnel, color='blue', marker='s', label='Personnel')
ax2.set_ylabel('Personnel', color='blue')
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='blue')

# Plot Acres per Man-hour as bar chart
ax3 = ax1.twinx()
ax3.bar(dates, acres_per_manhour, alpha=0.3, color='green', label='Acres per Man-hour')
ax3.set_ylabel('Acres per Man-hour', color='green')
ax3.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='green')
ax3.spines['right'].set_position(('outward', 60))  # Move third axis out

# Add legends
lines, labels = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()
lines2, labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()
lines3, labels3 = ax3.get_legend_handles_labels()
ax1.legend(lines + lines2 + lines3, labels + labels2 + labels3, loc='upper left')

plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()